WMO Predicts 60% Chance of La Niña Emerging by Late 2024

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued an update forecasting a 60% probability of La Niña conditions emerging by the end of 2024. This development follows a period of neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific, where neither El Niño nor La Niña has prevailed.

Key Points:

• La Niña Outlook: There is a growing likelihood of transitioning to La Niña, with a 55% chance expected between September and November 2024. This probability rises to 60% for the period from October 2024 to February 2025. During this time, the chances of El Niño redeveloping are considered negligible.

• Climate Impact: La Niña, characterized by the cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, often leads to shifts in global weather patterns. While it generally brings cooling effects, it contrasts with the warming influence of El Niño. However, despite La Niña's potential cooling impact, the broader trend of global warming persists, driven by human-induced climate change.

• Long-Term Warming Trend: WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized that even if La Niña occurs, it will not counteract the long-term warming trend caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. The past decade has seen the warmest years on record, even with the influence of previous La Niña events.

• Global Climate Update: The latest forecasts from WMO indicate that above-normal sea-surface temperatures are likely to persist across most ocean basins, except in the near-equatorial eastern Pacific, which is consistent with the potential emergence of weak La Niña conditions. This is expected to result in above-normal temperatures over much of the world’s land areas during the upcoming months.

• Regional Rainfall Predictions: Rainfall forecasts for September to November 2024 suggest patterns typical of early-stage La Niña, including above-average precipitation in regions such as northern South America, Central America, the Caribbean, and parts of Southeast Asia and Africa.

WMO’s Continued Monitoring

The WMO, through its Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts, will continue to monitor the development of La Niña and other climatic conditions. Their updates are vital for helping governments, organizations, and communities prepare for potential climate impacts, thereby safeguarding lives and livelihoods.